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Case Study

ctDNA Detection Predicted Recurrence or Progression after ICI

Detailed

Category:

Advanced-stage Cancer Studies​

Source:

JCO Oncology Advances

Cancer type:

Lung Cancer

Patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have transformed treatment outcomes. Yet, even in cases where imaging suggests remission, microscopic disease may persist. In such scenarios, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) offers oncologists a powerful tool to detect recurrence before clinical or radiographic signs emerge. This is the story of a 60-year-old man with stage IV NSCLC, whose case demonstrates how ctDNA monitoring predicted disease progression ahead of imaging, offering a critical opportunity for earlier intervention.

Table of Contents

ctDNA Monitoring: The Early Warning System

While imaging in July 2023 suggested complete response, ctDNA testing told a different story:

  • Jul 2023: ctDNA was positive at 0.14%, indicating minimal residual disease (MRD) despite negative imaging.
  • Dec 2023: The patient presented with pleural effusion and new liver lesions. CT confirmed radiologic recurrence. ctDNA remained positive (0.12%).
  • May 2024: ctDNA increased to 0.31%, correlating with disease progression. Chemotherapy was initiated.

What Made Genomic Profiling and ctDNA Valuable in This Case?

  • ctDNA is an early indicator of recurrence, even in patients with radiologic complete response.
  • KRAS/TP53 co-mutation may suggest increased risk of recurrence despite initial immunotherapy benefit. (1)
  • Longitudinal ctDNA monitoring post-ICI is valuable for high-risk patients or those discontinuing treatment prematurely.

ctDNA positivity preceded radiologic progression by ~6 months — a window in which earlier intervention may have been considered. Without ctDNA data, the patient might have been considered disease-free until symptomatic or radiographic recurrence. The molecular signature offered lead-time to prepare for potential relapse.

References:

  1. Liang Y, Maeda O, Kondo C, Nishida K, Ando Y. Effects of KRAS, STK11, KEAP1, and TP53 mutations on the clinical outcomes of immune checkpoint inhibitors among patients with lung adenocarcinoma. PLoS ONE. 2024;19(7):e0307580. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0307580

Table of Contents

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